As conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, one of the world’s most critical corridors for global energy and container trade remains under significant pressure.
For logistics organizations, the disruption is unfolding across multiple fronts.
Teams are managing shipments already in transit, responding to cargo that was booked but not yet loaded, and reassessing future bookings as the situation evolves.
Aggregated, anonymized CargoWise data indicates as of 12 March 2026, more than 54,000 ocean shipments and over 200 vessels remain affected. That means roughly two in five logistics organizations using CargoWise are still experiencing ongoing ocean-based disruption.
Recent reports of cargo ships struck by suspected projectiles off the Iranian coast highlight how volatile the situation remains. With no clear timeline for resolution, ocean carriers and freight forwarders are being forced to make quick, high-stakes decisions.
But this reactive approach is exactly the challenge, says CargoWise Market Intelligence Product Manager Jon Charles.
“Most disruption planning still focuses on answering ‘what happened’. The shift logistics companies should be making is asking, ‘what risk is emerging’, and ‘what should I do next?’”
Reading the early signals of capacity risk in ocean freight
While disruption remains concentrated around Gulf routes, carrier service suspensions, rerouted vessels, and booking controls are reshaping capacity across the wider ocean freight network. This increases the likelihood that shippers and forwarders will be unable to secure space on preferred sailings or at agreed contract rates.
According to Jon, the earliest indicators of this shift appear in carrier booking behavior.
“When you see demand tightening against supply and booking rejection rates rising at the same time, you know customers face a real risk of not securing space.”
Unlike disruption risks such as port closures or weather events, capacity risk forms upstream and builds gradually. It emerges when three factors become unbalanced:
- Demand: for space on a trade lane in a given sailing week
- Supply: determined by carrier sailing schedules and vessel capacity deployed
- Carrier behavior: reflected in booking acceptance and rejection decisions.
Tracking these signals allows forwarders to identify tightening market conditions and respond before they translate into operational disruption.
Where capacity pressure is building across major trade lanes
“The question our customers are asking right now is how carriers’ responses to the crisis will impact future service structures, specifically whether service changes will increase booking rejection risk, and whether this will move beyond a region‑specific issue to affect other trade lanes,” Jon explains.
CargoWise risk intelligence shows that while disruption is influencing the wider network, the effects are not uniform across all trade lanes.
Carrier booking suspensions linked to the crisis are currently affecting around five percent of global containerized volumes, indicating that this is not a system wide capacity shock.
This shift is already visible in routes serving the Middle East, where carrier behavior has changed sharply over a short period. Booking rejection rates for sailings into the affected region increased by more than 140 percent across Week 9 and Week 11 (late February to mid March).
Over the same period, average booking rejection rates across all trade lanes declined by seven percent.
Assessing the short-term impact on major trade lanes
According to market forecasting based on aggregated CargoWise data, both Asia–Europe and Europe–North America trade lanes are expected to remain in capacity surplus over the next eight weeks.
Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, there is currently no clear evidence that Middle East-related service adjustments are reducing available space across these major east–west corridors. Sailing schedules and vessel deployment plans have not yet materially constrained capacity on either route.
A different pattern is emerging on the Asia–North America trade lane.
From around Week 13 (late March) capacity is expected to tighten, driven primarily by carrier supply adjustments rather than a shift in underlying demand. Published carrier sailing schedules and vessel deployment plans indicate a noticeable reduction in available capacity from this point, with a declining forward trend.
Turning market modelling into forward-looking risk intelligence
Supply chain resilience doesn’t mean risk has disappeared. As disruption evolves, forwarders need to look beyond real-time events and understand where pressure may emerge next.
Market modelling becomes most valuable when it is translated into forward-looking risk intelligence and forecasting.
By combining demand-to-supply signals with booking acceptance data already available within the CargoWise platform, forwarders can identify tightening conditions early and adjust booking strategies before pressure turns into service failure or spot market exposure.
“Capacity risk is about understanding where demand is building faster than scheduled supply, weeks before it becomes operational disruption.” says Jon
In a market where disruption is constant and its effects far-reaching, the competitive edge goes to those who can better anticipate risk, not those who scramble to react.
Disclaimer
All figures referenced are indicative only and based on aggregated, anonymized CargoWise data. They do not reflect the operations, volumes or exposure of any individual customer, shipment or organization.
Explore our interactive situation report
See where disruption is concentrated and how shipment impact is evolving across the CargoWise network.