Middle East crisis drives air cargo rate volatility: How AirlineConnect can deliver real-time relief for forwarders

Air cargo rates are rapidly rising, as tensions in the Middle East continue to impact global supply chains.

Since the conflict began in late February, disruption to energy markets has pushed global fuel prices to record highs.

According to IATA’s fuel price monitor, weekly average jet fuel prices rose from around $95 per barrel to $197 from late February to March 20.

Airlines and carriers have been quick to react, with industry data showing sharp increases in air freight rates week-on-week.

Average global full-market air cargo rates rose by 10% in week 11 (March 9 to 15), while worldwide spot rates surged by 12% on average during the same period.

“We know that the tensions in the Middle East are pushing air freight rates up, tightening capacity, and making transit times less predictable, but the real challenge is the split between freighter and belly cargo - each faces unique pressures,” says Elias Hatzigeorgiou, Senior Product Manager at CargoWise.

Freighter vs. belly cargo: understanding the split and its impact

Ongoing disruption is affecting freighter and belly cargo in different ways, increasing costs on one side and reducing available capacity on the other.

Freighter operators have more flexibility to adjust routes and capacity, but rising fuel costs are forcing rates up as airlines pass on surcharges, particularly on long-haul routes.

“This creates a more volatile pricing environment, where rates can shift quickly and are harder to predict,” Elias says.

On the other hand, belly cargo depends on passenger flight schedules. With rerouting, cancellations, and ongoing schedule changes, available space is shrinking and becoming harder to secure.

The result? A compounding effect: Less capacity + higher costs = sustained upward pressure on rates.

For forwarders, this means proactive planning isn’t just smart; it’s essential, Elias explains.

“This period is a structural stress test for the industry, and a stark reminder of how closely air cargo is linked to geopolitical risk and energy markets. We’re not facing a short-term spike, but a fundamental shift in the landscape.”

AirlineConnect: real-time rate comparison and capacity visibility

In a volatile market, speed and visibility are critical. Yet rates, schedules, and capacity are still fragmented across systems.

This is where AirlineConnect comes in.

Instead of calling airlines, switching between portals, or relying on outdated rate sheets, AirlineConnect brings live pricing from connected airlines into a single view within CargoWise, with results sorted by best price, shortest transit, earliest arrival, or earliest departure.

It also provides real-time visibility into available capacity, showing which airlines have space, on which flights, and on which dates, across a five-day window from estimated departure.

The “Specific Equipment” filter separates belly cargo and freighter options, while advanced sorting and filtering options support faster, smarter decision-making:

• Sort by price, transit time, or arrival time 
• Filter by route, including direct flights or connections
• Set maximum duration and number of connections
• Select or exclude specific airlines
• Toggle between grid and list views
• Highlight the best offer per day

This consolidates rate comparison and capacity visibility into a single workflow, allowing forwarders to act immediately as rates shift and space becomes limited.

Instantly book, amend and cancel, all within the same platform

Once an operator selects their preferred offer, they can instantly submit an eBooking with the airline directly from within CargoWise. Confirmed bookings automatically update the consol with accurate flight, route, and pricing information in real-time with no re-keying between systems.

In an unpredictable rate environment, the ability to move quickly from comparison to confirmation without leaving CargoWise means forwarders can lock in pricing before the next surcharge adjustment hits.

When a booking is confirmed, AirlineConnect automatically updates the air consol with:

• Flight details, routing, ETD/ETA
• Charge codes and cost breakdowns (in local and original currency)
• Booking confirmation notes

AirlineConnect also supports electronic amendments and cancellations for confirmed or queued bookings, all within the same interface.

This flexibility is essential in today’s unpredictable and dynamic air cargo environment.

“When routes change or capacity shifts, operators can use AirlineConnect to adapt without starting from scratch,” Elias says.

CargoWise workflow triggers can also be set on carrier messaging events, such as alerts for rejected bookings, cancellations, or confirmations.

This keeps booking, updates, and exceptions connected, even as conditions change.

Move from reactive firefighting to proactive management

Too often, air freight decisions are made with incomplete or outdated information, especially when conditions are changing quickly.

AirlineConnect replaces that uncertainty with real-time visibility and control - transforming air cargo booking from a fragmented, manual process into a centralized, data-driven workflow.

As Elias explains, “this is exactly what freight forwarders need when the market is under pressure.”